NFL Efficiency Ratings- Super Bowl Predictions
Ended up going 2-0 in the championship games and was 6-4 in the playoffs. The Super Bowl is really a matchup of two very even teams. Both teams are great defensive teams. For some reason everyone just assumes its the Steelers that have the great defense. The teams are more or less dead even in terms of dominance on that side of the ball. So both teams can shut the other team down. Green Bay is more explosive on offense, but the real issue is consistency.
Pittsburgh all year showed consistency both at home and on the road. The offense was slightly above average in both spots. The defense was pretty excellent in both spots. So you know what you will get from the Steelers. But what do you get from the Packers? The problem with Green Bay is that they have been something of a jeckyl and hyde team on offense. They lit up the Falcons, but did not look special against the Eagles or Bears.
For the most part they have not done well away from home. On the road this year they are only averaging about 18 points and that is against a schedule allowing 20. At home they scored over 30 against defenses giving up 22. So the potential is there but they have these wild swings which has to cause for concern. The Packers bandwagon grew because of that Falcons game but that was an aberration. You can not count on that.
One of the things that makes the Super Bowl a tougher prediction is the neutral field aspect. Does the Packers road offense show up or does their home offense show up? If the home offense shows up the Steelers do not even have a chance. If the road offense shows up the Steelers probably have the slight advantage.
Green Bay is the better team, by a very slight margin. On the year they were slightly better on offense and slightly better on defense. If the teams simply play to their normal overall levels you will get a close lower scoring game, probably decided late by a field goal or a defensive stand. Call it 17-16 Green Bay.