NFL Efficiency, Week 4
Normally I would do these after week 5, but with the Jets playing Monday night I don't think I will have the time to do them next week so I'll put them up a week early. For those of you who are new readers this year my efficiency ratings are tracking a teams performance relative to their schedule. Scoring Efficiency represents how many points a team has scored either above or below the average of the teams on their schedule. Defensive Efficiency represents how many points a team has given up above or below their schedule's average. As an example we will look at the Jets. The Jets opponents average 20 points per game on offense and allow 23 points per game on defense. The Jets average 26.5 points a game and allow 15.25 points a game. That represents a SE of 15.22 and a DE of 23.51. The overall efficiency is the sum of those figures, 38.73. I also track home and away splits but do not publish those on the site. For certain teams those splits are very drastic.
I doubt anyone is too surprised about what teams are in the top 10, with the exception of the Chiefs. The Steelers are playing way above expectation levels as well. The Jets defense is no longer putting up the elite numbers it did last year, ranking 6th, and I am sure the team hopes that improves. New England looks like it will be the team with the crazy split between offense and defense. If they keep this up they will have major problems with good defensive teams, which is why they lost so badly to New York in week 2. The Chargers are already showing the terrible road splits they showed last season, a reflection on poor coaching and lack of leadership on the team
The Rams are the stunning team in the second tier and their push has actually been on defense where they are a top 5 team thus far. They have played a weak schedule and mainly played at home so we will have to wait and see how it holds up as the season goes on. Dallas has been a victim of terrible offense this year while the Texans are going to have a tough time if their defense does not improve with the return of Brian Cushing. Chicago is one of the worst of the 3 win teams and the most likely to fall apart, though the strong defense always makes a team dangerous.
The bottom tier has a number of surprises. The Vikings should turn things around with a top 5 defense, but their offense is atrocious, ranking 31st in the NFL. They need to run more and keep the ball out of the QB's hands until he gets his act together. The Saints look to have the Super Bowl jinx running through their system and would be 0-4 if they played a tough schedule. Their wins have come against the 21st, 29th, and 32nd ranked teams and they have barely won those games. Miami's season looks to be ready to go up in flames, but they are still at a point where they could turn it around. Those bottom teams, starting with Oakland, are at a level that usually teams do not recover from. In all the years I have kept these stats the first 4 or 5 weeks of the season means little at the top, but the teams below 30% OE never have made a jump into contention.
2010 NFL Efficiency Ratings, thru week 4
|Rank||Team||Scoring Efficiency||Defensive Efficiency||Overall Efficiency|
|2.||Kansas City Chiefs||8.37||34.76||43.13|
|3.||New York Jets||15.22||23.51||38.73|
|5.||San Diego Chargers||26.73||3.62||30.35|
|7.||New England Patriots||47.19||-23.08||24.11|
|9.||Green Bay Packers||12.17||4.89||17.06|
|12.||Saint Louis Rams||-19.16||26.24||7.08|
|23.||New Orleans Saints||5.10||-15.97||-10.87|
|24.||New York Giants||-8.57||-6.67||-15.24|
|27.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-6.54||-18.00||-24.54|
|29.||San Francisco 49'ers||-19.90||-22.01||-41.91|