NFL Efficiency Ratings- Week 9

This is the first half posting of my efficiency ratings for the 32 teams in the NFL. This is usually where you start to see movement from teams in one direction or the other. The big fallers over this past quarter were the Broncos (2 to 12), Giants (6 to 14), and Chicago (7 to 21). You don't want to write those teams off just yet, and in the Broncos case they are still the best team statistically in their division, but these teams basically played much worse once the schedules stiffened up.

New Orleans retains the top spot by a wide margin, but their defense is rapidly trending downward as the season is wearing on. Through week 4 they were holding teams to nearly 35% below their average score. Now it is only 6% which is a big reason why they got a few scares from Miami and Carolina. With the defense going in that direction it will be hard to make a case that they will go 16-0. In the last go around the stats said NEw England was playing far better than their record and on the surface performance at the time, but they have become the most solid team in the AFC with tremendous balance on both offense and defense. Baltimore and Atlanta at 4 and 5 is kind of puzzling. Both teams pad their stats by blowing out bad teams but often come up short once the competition level rises. Neither team should be written off.

The most overhyped teams in the NFL are the Vikings and Steelers. Give them credit for winning their games, but neither has faced a hard schedule. The Vikings snuck a home win against the Ravens as their only quality win while the rest of their wins are against the worst teams in the NFL. The Steelers have faced a tougher scheudle but have yet to beat a top flight team. The bottom of the NFL is as bad as it has ever been with 8 teams below 40%. Those teams have little hope which is why some of the point spreads are so high this season.

Going through the individual categories the Saints have by far the best offense. Miami comes in 2nd off a run of putting up big 30 point efforts against some tremendous defenses. Miami's opponents average 18 PPG allowed which is the toughest defensive schedule in the NFL thus far. Baltimore, New England, and Minnesota round out the top 5. The other big surprise might be the Texans and Colts who are known to be dominant offenses but right now only rank 12th and 15th respectively. Browns, Raiders, and Rams are the worst offenses in the NFL. Five teams are in the running for best performing defense in 2009. Indianapolis ranks number 1 in that category closely followed by the Patriots, Broncos, Jets, and Bengals. The Jets numbers are hurt due to a number of non-defensive scores allowed. The worst defense belongs to the Titans. The worst playoff chaser is the Jacksonville Jaguars who have used an easy schedule and some luck to defy the odds. They are the 7th worst team in the NFL but are 4-4. The two best home teams in the NFL are the Dolphins and Ravens, while the road warriors are the Cardinals and the Saints. The Cardinals right now are so good on the road (a ridiculous 108%) that they would be the best team in the NFL if they played 16 games away from home.

2009 NFL Efficiency Ratings, Thru week 9