A Look at the Jets Playcalling vs the Steelers
Last week I took a look at how the Jets had run their offense for most of the season I thought it might be a fun little exercise to track how they did it yesterday to see if there were big differences, which is what it seemed to be to the naked eye. Here is the Jets run play selection from the Steelers game compared to their norms that we presented last week:
| 1st down | 2nd 3-5 | 2nd > 6 | 3rd < 3 | 3rd 3-5 | 3rd > 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Steelers | 52.2 | 84.4 | 35.7 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 14.3 |
| 2010 Season | 60.3 | 50.9 | 31.9 | 62.5 | 7.1 | 8.2 |
As we touched on last week there were some tendencies that the Jets looked like they may be better off changing and that was what they did this week. They bumped down to basically a 50/50 run to pass ratio on first down which was a big step in the right direction, especially since the Steelers were well prepared for those runs. The Jets only netted 2 YPA on first down, which is worse than their usual production on 1st downs. The Jets did get more conservative as the game went on with 7 of their last 9 drives opening with a run play.
The really big change came on 2nd and less than 6 yards to go. The Jets normally have an even run/pass split, but on this day they ended up going run heavy and ran on over 80% of these plays. There were 6 such situations in the game and the lone pass came on the drive at the end of the first half with time winding down. All 6 ended up in either a conversion on second or led to an easy conversion on 3rd down.
On third downs the Jets flipped their play calling on 3rd and short by abandoning the run and going with the pass. This was a necessity because of the defensive front presented by the Steelers. They also mixed things up a little bit by running in 3rd and long one time, a play that often works if it's a once in a blue moon call and that worked for the team here. It was the perfect game for those calls as it kept Pittsburgh off balance the entire afternoon.
Now of course a big reason for the success was how much better QB Mark Sanchez looked on the field. But lets dig into his pass stats and look at his YPC to see where the play calling likely had an effect.
| 1st down | 2nd 3-5 | 2nd > 6 | 3rd < 3 | 3rd 3-5 | 3rd > 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Steelers | 7.3 | 6.0 | 13.8 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 9.0 |
| 2010 Season | 12.4 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 14.5 |
The real noticeable differences came on 1st down and 3rd and short. The 1st down passes were all short which is why his completion percentage also spiked from around 55% to almost 73% for the game. They made life easy on him. The same went on 3rd and less than 3 to go as the Jets played everything short and simply cared about moving the chains. He completed both of his passes in this situation for 1st downs. Normally he is just above 50%. Mark had been struggling greatly on those other 3rd down plays and they called things safe to avoid turnover problems, a big issue with him on 3rd and long.
Did the play calling work out? It did the necessary thing of getting the Jets into 3rd and short situations. About 50% of the Jets second down plays worked out to be a 1st down or 3rd and less and 3 situations compared to their usual of 44%. That is enough to gain an extra 3 plays or extra 6 plays in a game. it's a big part of why they were able to run so much clock off and put together big drives even if they did not end in points. It will be interesting to see if this is a model the Jets decide to follow of if this was a specific gameplan for a team with a great run defense and outstanding pass rush.
Thanks for taking the time to follow up. Now let's just hope BS is reading the same article!!!
Good game for the O, hope this will carry through into the postseason.
So what will Rex do next year, it is time to change coordinators? It looks like Martz has done a great job with cutler who looked like a bust when he first went to chicago. Sanchez has talent, and perhaps the talent clouds shotty's judgement. It may be time to move in a new direction for 2011. Or can shotty stay in a scheme that allows Sanchez to play without risk. Clearly the no huddle was effective with no voices from the sideline.
Dave- I think the no huddle approach at the end of games is Sanchez simply playing uncomplicated football. When the Jets opened with it in NE it was a tactical error, not so much because it changed the pace of the game (though that was also a mistake), but because they believed it was the fast aspect that was good for Sanchez. The difference is the Jets no huddle to open against NE was a scripted series just as complex as the usual offense. Unless the offense ends the year with a bang I dont know how Schotty comes back. The owner listens to the media and fans and Schotty is going to be public enemy number 1 this year. The best case is for someone to give Schottenheimer a head coaching gig so the Jets dont have to worry about it, but I just cant see any team looking to take him. A "hot coordinator" is a guy who leads the the league in something and looks to be somewhat innovative. Schotty has done none of that.
The Colts, Pats, the 80's 49ers proved that this pass play is almost impossible to stop. They have the speed on both corners to make this happen every play.
Once the LB's move over to cover more of the flats it'll open up the middle more for Keller.
As for the OC, I would like to see a change at this spot.
The Colts, Pats, the 80's 49ers proved that this pass play is almost impossible to stop. They have the speed on both corners to make this happen every play.
Once the LB's move over to cover more of the flats it'll open up the middle more for Keller.
As for the OC, I would like to see a change at this spot.
As for Brian Schottenheimer, even when the Jets were winning strings of games and Sanchez was throwing no interceptions, I did not think Schotty was a GREAT OC. The defense kept us in a lot of games, and I think the vanilla offense got away with a lot of miscues as a result.
I'm still wondering when Schotty will wake up and smell the coffee regarding the modified Wildcat. "Hello! We all know Smith is going to run the ball! This guy used to be a QB in college. Just once, have him THROW the danged ball."
Having said that, I am mindful of Sanchez's first season when he back peddled, threw off the wrong foot, and completed a 65 yard pass. If I was the OC, and I had a pretty darned good offensive line, I'd be tempted to work in more difficult pass plays, too.
Last week, Jason alluded to the absence of Woody and how that may be affecting the overall OL performance. I believe that is a factor here. Accordingly, the smart OC will make things easier on his offensive line by working in short, high percentage passes for which protection of the QB is more manageable, as appeared to be the case against the Steelers.
If I had one criticism of Schottenheimer, it would be that he is very slow to change. He appears to stay with his game plan, whether it works or not.
It seems like a lot of teams have figured out the Jets' "blitz on every down" defense. To Ryan's credit, he has changed up a lot of defensive formations and schemes so that they are not so easy to read anymore.
What disturbs me is that the offense also had become too predictable, but it looked like Ryan had to step in before any significant change had occurred.
I don't know. Things happen so quickly in the NFL anymore. Pittsburgh has a reputation for sticking with a coach for 10 years. He wins a Super Bowl, and they say, "See? We did the right thing sticking with this guy."
Ever since Bill Parcells started coaching in the NFL, however, I tell people, "If a coach talks about rebuilding, it's time for a new coach." Parcells turned teams around so quickly that there was never any talk about rebuilding. Ryan has also done that with the Jets, but I agree with you guys. His success does seem to be in spite of Schottenheimer.
Thanks again for the run analysis, Jason.