Inside the Numbers: Jets vs Lions
Something tells me this is not going to be very pretty for the offense….
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+PA%|
Analysis: A good bounce back game for Sanchez who saw his numbers almost all improve over last weeks debacle. He continues his strong performance in the down the field throwing, this time posting a 56% and 36% above norm numbers in the 20+ and YPC category. The big difference in results came from his completion percentage only being a -8.5% compared to the double digit negatives of last week. More completions drives the YPA higher and does help the team get into more manageable situations. For the second week in a row the offensive line was dominant in pass protection. They held the Packers to about 50% below their normal sack totals last week and held the Lions to 74% below their norms this week. When you give Sanchez unhurried time in the pocket it is only going to benefit him.
Analysis:Edwards bounced back nicely with his huge 74 yard score that put him in a position to go into the stratosphere from a statistical standpoint in the YPR and long reception categories. With free agency impending for Edwards I do believe that there has to be some thought in his head about why he can not get more passes his way. He is the most consistent receiver on the team, but his reception totals are almost always below the average for a number 1 and that will cost him money on the open market. It could also cost the Jets a win. I just wonder if the Jets feel he is being used perfectly and there would be little added return by throwing more to him and that is why he does not get more chances most weeks.
|Lions (WR 2)||2.4||39.0||16.1||22.6|
Analysis: This is finally what the Jets envisioned when they traded for Holmes and felt he and Edwards would essentially give them an unstoppable 1-2 punch. Holmes destroyed the performance standards of the number 2’s, which is what the Jets anticipated would happen since he is so much better than most number 2 targets. The question now is if he can sustain it.
Analysis: Cotchery has basically become Brad Smith in the receiving game. It is inexplicable the way he has fallen apart this year. His numbers as a 2 were off the charts awful and now as a 3 he is still coming up below average. In terms of cap space the Jets gain nothing by moving him next season, but he is playing his way off the team. At this point now the Jets have to sit him to keep his targets down because he is actually hampering the passing game.
Analysis: Another in a series of solid games for Keller who is finally living up to the first round expectations. He was able to exploit the Lions defense down the field far more than they are usually attacked as evidenced by the 44.8% increase in YPR. Unlike last week where he should have had more looks, the Jets made perfect use of Keller this week who should be a constant target for Sanchez.
Analysis: For whatever reason the Jets have a terrible scheme for use of the runners. Last year people blamed it on Thomas Jones, but this is just an offensive flaw. The Jets did check down to them a lot this game but the results were terrible. Sanchez often gets the ball there too late and it gives Tomlinson no chance to move. Teams this year have crushed the Lions with plays out of the backfield and the Jets just could not capitalize.
Analysis: This is now three weeks of bad play in a row for LT and you have to call it a trend now. He is not turning the corner as well as he did early in the year and the offensive line is not opening up those holes in the moddle of the line for him to bust through. This had to be a real slap in the face of a team that shouts “ground and pound” as their offensive philosophy as the Lions shut the Jets completely down in this phase of the game.
Analysis:Greene saw his attempts rise this week and his numbers show that he can be more than just a traditional backup if the Jets give him a chance. He does seem to do better after contact than Tomlinson, but Greene also does not look like the same player as last season. Still this was a positive step and another week or two like this and he will force them to give him the ball more.
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+/Att|
Analysis: The streak of dominant pass defense came to an end against Stafford, which is surprising since this was the best play the Jets got out of their two primary corners on the year. Stafford did an excellent job of spreading the ball around and was able to find guys open much further down the field than are his norms. The lack of picks by the Jets defense is becoming a concern. When your offense is in kind of a funk you need turnovers from the defense and they are not forcing them. They had two chances but came up short both times. LB Calvin Pace’s contract is going to become an offseason story if things do not turn around in the pass rush.
Analysis:All you have to do is look at those first two columns and see the -80% numbers to realize just how great the defense was on this day. It took 7 games but this was finally the return of Revis Island. Revis got tested early and they never went back because he had Johnson covered like a glove. An A+ effort from the star cornerback.
Analysis: Burleson is one of the worst secondary targets in the NFL and the Jets allowed him to look like Jerry Rice. For some reason they chose not to put Antonio Cromartie on him and left Drew Coleman to cover him pretty much the whole day. The bloom is off the Coleman rose. He got lit up like a Christmas tree against Greg Jennings last week until the Jets pulled him from the assignment and this was just an embarrassment. To allow 84% more receptions and 221% more yards in obscene.
Analysis:This was far better than I thought it would be from watching the game. I guess when watching the game you see the bad coverage by Leonhard once or twice and the awful coverage by Smith and think the worst, but nobody realizes just how much Detroit uses their tight ends. To hold them to 40% below their usual reception level is a solid effort from the club.
The Lions are one of the better screen teams in the NFL and the Jets had their first poor game in this regard as neither David Harris nor Bart Scott could keep containment against these players. The stats could have been far worse for the Jets had Best caught a bomb down the sidelines where he was wide open. It will be interesting if other teams think they can now find a flaw in what had been a flawless year covering the backfield.
Analysis:This is three weeks in a row against bad running teams so its tough to gauge if the Jets run defense is getting slightly worse of if they are just playing to a certain number regardless of opposition. Best did break off a run hat was 14% longer than his norm and that is becoming an issue with the defense, but I think the coach will take one big run and a bunch of non gainers most weekends. The team plays a better run attack next week so we’ll get a better idea of just where they are when that game is over.
A weird game for certain. The offense put up dominant numbers, but they were all essentially on 4 drives, including the overtime drive, with nothing else of merit for the day. The defense was ok. Certainly not great and if they plan on allowing 20 points a game its going to be hard for the Jets to win with such an inconsistent offense. On offense the Jets need to fix their running game and start throwing the passes set for Cotchery to both Keller and Edwards who are both far more productive players. Defensively the Jets need another cornerback. Teams are doing exactly what they did in 2008 against the Jets when they decided to pick on Dwight Lowery every play, except now its on Coleman. Sometimes a staff can get one or two games out of a player before the league catches on and that is what is happening with Coleman. The same thing happened with Eric Smith at starting Safety last year. Expect a chance soon.
Santonio Holmes: A
Dustin Keller: A
Braylon Edwards: B+
Offensive Line: B+
Mark Sanchez: B+
Defensive Line: B
Shonn Greene: B
Jerricho Cotchery: C-
LaDainian Tomlinson: D
This is a good point. How much better is the pass protection this year compared to last year? The Jets strated off shaky with DBrick and Slauson having a couple of bad games. Since then I think a fair number of the sacks have either been Sanchez's fault, or the RB whiffing on a block.
Is the Oline better at pass protection and not as good at run blocking this year?
Against Green Bay there was a play where he was wide open and a touchdown was there had he been passed to (and caught it). Is Edwards open a lot and not being passed to? Also, with Cotchery dropping so many balls, maybe there is less time on offense overall, so Edwards gets fewer passes because the Jets are punting.
Why is Coleman playing Nickleback instead of Lowery or Coles? Maybe we can get Strickland back
Also - perhaps Burlson is at least on OK receiver, as opposed to horrible, and played well, coupled with terrible play by Coleman.
If the Nickleback is this horrible, coupld with a wweak pass rush, then even with Revis and Cromartie, the Jets have a so-so pass defense.
At times he is awful, with terribly accuracy. Against Green Bay he had a couple of times when he was protected for 4 seconds and still incomplete. It seems when the Jets allow an opposing QB 4+ seconds they usually make some 15+ yard pass. Sanchez is still developing, so I am patient. I wonder if the coaching is a problem.
I like Cotchery and am sad he is performing so poorly. But I agree, pass to Holms and Edwards more.
What do the Jets have to do to improve?
1 - get an OK Nickleback - how?
2 - pass less to Cotchery?
3 - change the offensive game plan ?
Edwards should get at least one or two more looks a game right now. I think the Jets have to start to trust him more on intermediate routes. His only two routes he seems to run now are either the deep post or go route along with the WR screen or short comeback. Its like anything beyond 8 yards and insider 20 yards they dont trust him with.
Coleman is playing because he is fast. Lowery is too slow to play the slot and Cole is strictly a special teams guys. Wilson has been the bitter disappointment here. He would be perfect to play the slot right now, but he is lost. AS for Burleson you have to go back to late 2007 to find a game where he had that many yards receiving.
I think the Jets system focuses on deep throws and takes a long time for receivers to come open so the players hold the ball too long, Sanchez included. Thats why the sacks against Chad and Favre were so high compared to their norms. So they hold and when nobody comes open they dont get the 15 yarder you expect when you have all day to throw. Sanchez is also a little indecisive and throws late in some routes as well. He missed a pass to Edwards in the game where he has to make the throw while the receivers back is to him so the ball hits him as soon as he comes around. Instead he waited unil Braylon turned and broke back which allowed the defender to recover and knock the ball away.
I think all 3 of those things will be looked at. I cant see how they can improve at the nickle. I think this is just a thing where they will go week by week. They should get a pass this week because Cleveland doenst have much of a passing game. I do think if they look less as J-CO the production of the offense will improve. He is a drive killer. It would be nice to see the Jets run a more decisive offense with the pass game. They are also using playaction way too much and its no longer effective. Mark runs it great, but teams are picking on that its a pass play right off the bat.