Inside the Numbers: Jets vs Dolphins
This is the final week where I will use the 2009 stats for the standard statline and I will begin using the 2010 stats for the Bills game next week. Just to clear up any confusion on the QB Stats TPA% is the percentage of touchdowns per pass attempts, IPA % is the percentage of interceptions per pass attempts, SPA % is sacks per pass attempt, and 20+PA is the percentage of big plays over 20 yards per pass play. As always comments are always welcome here or via email. Onto the numbers breakdown
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+PA%|
Analysis: Another very good game for Sanchez. While the completion percentage was down from where you would like it, his other numbers were all off the charts. This was the first game of the year where the Jets seemed to completely take the handcuffs off and allow him to use the entire field of play rather than limiting him to a smaller window for pass attempts. This is also the second week in a row where his TD % is extremely high, which definitely indicates a big shift from last season. In 2009 the Jets did not trust Mark to be throwing into the end zone. In 2010 this is not the case. Looking back at that first week really hurts, because Sanchez is proving he can play well above average. The coach gave that defense far too much credit and his QB not enough credit that week. I don’t think that will happen again. The offensive line had their best showing. They did have to grab a few holds to avoid the sacks, but Sanchez was mainly clean for the night.
|09 Dolphins (WR 1)||4.38||68.31||15.61||32.13|
Analysis: Edwards sat for a full quarter and still put up huge passing numbers as his two catches were real game changers. His catches were down from the usual, as Miami had all kinds of problems with number 1s last year, but that is attributed to the loss of a quarter of play more than anything else. If Edwards continues to have games like this the Jets passing attack has the potential to be real deadly once WR Santonio Holmes returns from suspension.
|09 Dolphins (WR 2)||3.00||54.19||18.06||31.88|
Analysis: Three games into the season is a good enough sample size to start to become concerned for Cotchery. His stats are just so far below what is expected of a number 2 wide receiver there is something that is wrong. You can’t make the excuse that it’s the other guys doing so well simply because this week the Jets third and fourth targets of Brad Smith and David Clowney put up a slightly above average statline so its not like the offense does not look to other targets. He needs a big game in week 4 against Buffalo or he is going to become forgotten in the offense once Holmes gets up to speed.
|09 Dolphins (TE1)||3.88||56.63||14.61||24.56|
Analysis: While this was not as impressive as his game against the Patriots, Keller’s game looks to have taken off to the next level. These are the type of big games the Jets expected when they drafted him in 2008 and he is finally looking comfortable in this offense. Miami had no answer for Keller early in the game and he helped ease the coverage on Edwards on that long TD.
|09 Dolphins (RB‘s)||3.69||35.81||9.71||19.19|
Analysis: This was the first game of the year where the running backs played little to no role in the pass game. The numbers were all down across the board and the yards per reception looks like it is going to settle in the -30% category for the season. The Jets best chance for a big play to their backs may have been on that pass that Sanchez could not get over the lineman and almost had intercepted. Things looked well set up for that play down the field and maybe they will try to work a few more plays like that into the gameplan next week.
|09 Dolphins (RB1)||15.25||67.38||4.02||15.25|
Analysis: Like with J-Co, I think the warning lights are now on with Greene. His statline played off as average against the Ravens and well below average these last two games. Its starting to look as if Greene is what he is and will put up the same numbers regardless of opponent. His big plays are way down as his long carry this week was nearly 41% below what the Dolphins gave up last season. There was only one play in the game where he displayed the physicality he showed last season and if he does not improve he is slowly going to be phased into a much lesser role with the team.
|09 Dolphins (RB2)||6.50||27.19||4.18||11.38|
Analysis:Very soon Tomlinson is going to be considered the number 1 back in the offense He is playing far superior to any other 2s in the league and is playing at a different level than Greene. LT is definitely a better player than he was in San Diego and the Jets are likely wondering what happens if they increase his workload even more. I’d anticipate LT’s carries to slowly creep up until the Jets begin to see diminishing returns on his contributions.
|Comp %||YPC||YPA||TPA %||IPA%||SPA%||20+/Att|
Analysis: This was basically right back to the messy performance of the Ravens game a few weeks ago. The numbers were actually not as bad as I expected as I got wrapped into the yardage totals, but the Jets were giving up an additional 30% on yards per play and did a horrible job of defending the goalline against Henne. The interception total was low and sacks were again well below average. The Jets did come close a few times, but as a unit they are underperforming every week in this regard. Right now the Jets best hope is to see what happens when Calvin Pace returns. He and Jason Taylor on the field together may make a difference.
Analysis:When watching the game there were certainly things Antonio Cromartie did well, especially around the end zone, but the stats speak for themselves here. Marshall had his way with the Jets defense on Sunday night. Cromartie had over the top help all night, but it seemed as if most of it was from S Jim Leonhard who is physically too small to give any help. On one of Marshalls big plays he just jumped over him to make a catch and Leonhard had no chance to defend it. Prior to this game Marshall had been invisible. His yardage totals that were 122% over his Denver numbers and 49.7% higher per reception than in Denver were unreal. The Jets definitely need a healthy Darrelle Revis back as soon as they start facing better receivers again.
|09 Other Target||6.69||79.00||11.81||24.94|
Analysis: Miami does not have a clear number 2, so I lumped Brian Hartline and Davone Bess together for this analysis. You can make an excuse for a bad showing against Marshall who is one of the top receivers in the game when he wants to be, but there is no excuse for this. You knew it was bad watching the game, but when you dive into the numbers it was far worse. 64% above norm in receptions. 115% above norm in yardage. 31% above norm in per reception yardage. And these numbers downt take into account a pass interference call and an overthrow where the Jets defense was beaten down the field. Most of these numbers fell on rookie CB Kyle Wilson who does not look ready for the speed of the game. The Jets may have to consider using more Dwight Lowery, though he also gave up a big reception in ths game as well.
Analysis:After weeks of getting burned by tight ends the Jets shut down Fasano and held him well under his usual numbers. I had a suspicion going into the game that the Jets don’t match up well with the athletes at tight end and they could do well here because Fasano is far from an athlete. The linebackers did a fine job here as did Kyle Wilson late in the game. Fasano did have a score against Eric Smith when Smith played too far off, but that was his only contribution.
Another outstanding effort to eliminate the running backs from the passing game. This is three weeks in a row the Jets have held teams well below their averages. The Lbs are just sniffing out the plays before the pass is even complete at this point. Miami likes to use their runners in this part of the game and they did not let them do it at all.
Analysis:The stats are a little misleading because the only reason Brown ended up above his averages was because of a 17 yard run late in the game when the Jets were more or less in a prevent defense and had nobody within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage other than the three down linemen. Most of the day Brown was completely bottled up and the Wildcat went nowhere.
Analysis: Williams became a non-factor in this game and he is having all kinds of ball security issues. He was lucky to not have coughed the ball up twice this game. There were no big runs for him and his overall yardage was down 60% from his stats last year. He does not look like the same player anymore.
The Jets are looking like they are going to have a very good passing game to rely on this year along with a pretty decent occasional running contribution from LaDainian Tomlinson. I should also add here that Brad Smith made a huge contribution in the run game that I did not compile since most teams don’t use three runners in a game like the Jets did this week. It does look as if the Ground and Pound game of last year may be a thing of the past. The offensive line clearly is not the same unit nor is Greene proving to be the physical runner the team wanted to pound the defense with. As the staffs trust continues to grow in Sanchez that should not be a worry.
Defensively this is not the same team as last season. Jim Leonhard as help is just not working out nor is Kyle Wilson looking to be ready to contribute at this level. He is getting torn to shreds. Teams are not going to be able to run on the Jets this year , but they are going to need to find a more natural pass rush to protect the cornerbacks. Hopefully if Darrelle Revis is at full strength in a few weeks he will make up for many of the problems that were shown this week.
Dustin Keller: A
Mark Sanchez: A Braylon Edwards: A
Brad Smith: A
LaDainian Tomlinson: B+
Defensive Line: B
Shonn Greene: D
Jerricho Cotchery: F
LT is the number one back right now. His numbers compare well with the #1 back. LT started the game last night and has had more carries in every game. They may not make an offical announcement but LT is the #1. Greene's numbers align with a #2 back.
Jericho who? Perhaps they brought in Coles believing J-Co was not a #2... Unfortunately, none of the other wide-outs measure up to a #2. Waiting for Santonio. 2011 draft priority if Braylon does not come back. I hope they keep him.
Leonard is having a few coverage and tackling issues and seems to be playing below last years level. But until revis is back, it is too early to judge. 2011 draft priority.
How much worse is Jets the OLine at opening up holes in 2010 compared to 2009?
It can't all be Slausons fault, can it?
I hope Pool can play full time and be the double team on big WRs instead of Leonhard. I assume his ankle is still bothering him.
I would much rather be a good passing team than a good running team.
Brandon- Agreed about the passing attack. Not sure what the deal is with the O-line. Woody looks slower out there as well. I think they miss Faneca's pulling ability. Hopefully its just the fact that it takes some time for an offensive line to gel.
I'm viewing the Cotchery and Greene lack of production differently. For Cotchery, I definitely think that he has been a #3 receiver all along, but was elevated by circumstances to the #1 spot in the past. Last year, with the exception of a number of clutch outs in the playoffs, I don't remember a lot of highlights or big games. With Sanchez now favoring Edwards and Keller, Cotchery's less important in the offense and is liable to be an afterthought in the stat sheet. Still, when Holmes comes back and takes his spot, Cotchery may be able to get open a lot more. Clearly, no DC would, in their right mind, use less than three secondary players to cover Edwards and Holmes, especially with the new version of Sanchez we're seeing. Add to that that LBs and most safeties can't cover Keller and you're left with a LB on Cotchery. He ought to win that matchup time and again assuming he's on the field. Opposing defenses are gonna have to play five and six secondary players to cover these receivers when all four are on the field. Which brings us to Greene.
Greene is a second-year player who played sparingly last year and who started the season against a stout Dline and coughed the ball up twice. I notice his grip, as he's running and he's definitely thinking about ball security now. Still, we're only seeing sniffs of the full flavor we might see if he was more experienced and less worried about screwing up. I think he'll be fine. Those sniffs are pretty tantalizing. He had a run to the right in the fourth quarter Sunday where he basically ran through the entire Dolphins defense and he was still on his feet when he went out of bounds.
Wilson is a raw rookie. He's not going to get it right out of the box. Didn't Revis get burned a number of times in his rookie season? The trouble, as you have said many times, is scheme. He's left out there without any help over the top, way too often. It's on the job training in a slaughterhouse. The bright spots are, that no one seems to be getting separation from him. Then, it's all about technique and experience.
God bless LaDainian Tomlinson. God bless Brad Smith. God bless Mark Sanchez. Three really welcome surprises. go Jets!
I think you are right on Greene. That play you are talking about is the only one since game 1 where I really recall him running the way he did at the end of last season. I think this fumbling thing is in his head right now and its changed the way he is running. Injuries are also going to be a concern with him.
Revis never looked like Wilson has in games 1 and 3. Revis' issue as a rookie was learning to defend the ball in the air rather than just rely on great cover skills. I remember watching him in Dallas against Terrell Owens that year and he probably missed 1 or 2 INTs simply by not knowing how to play the pass itself. Wilson looks more to me like Justin Miller when Miller was starting out. Physically he is there (except for that opening play on Hartline where Henne threw a bad ball), but once the ball is thrown he is lost. Miller never got it, hopefully Wilson will. Right now I think Wilson is getting confused by receivers preparing for a catch. Thats not something you see in college. Subtle hand movements or head movements that in college probably indicate the ball is in the air dont mean that in the pros. Wilson looks ball and then ends up grabbing a jersey or simply missing the end part of the route. That is clearly what happened on the PI call. With the one foot rule in college a receiver is not going to plant his feet on the ground turn and stand there waiting for a ball hoping to hold his balance so not to fall out of bounds. In college the guy turns right when the ball is there or keeps running because dragging one foot is pretty simple. I think Wilson just assumed the ball was about to get to Hartline so he just ran him over. As long as he works hard youll never see that happen again, but Im not sure the Jets can have a third WR in the future tear them up like that.
How do you think they'll handle the secondary? Do you see Lowery/Coleman as the #2/3 corner when three WRs are in the game, and Wilson as the guy to pick up either the fourth WR or, more likely, the TE or RB if they come out. He's kind of a fearless tackler, so he ought to be able to play the run in situations like that. He can certainly cover tight ends pretty well although Fasano isn't Gonzalez. Or else do you think they'll keep putting him in there at the #2 every game until he gets it. Obviously, they're better able to put points up now, so that gives them more leeway with young players, like Slauson and Wilson (as long as Slauson doesn't get Sanchez killed).
BTW, I didn't write about it, but did you notice after the Baltimore game the difference in Sanchez's manner? In his presser there seemed to be a subtle change. I attributed it, at the time, (maybe because of wishful thinking) to a decision he had made to take over the offense. I noticed in the post-game locker room speech after the NE game, Rex called for TRich to give the victory chant and Sanchez stopped him to say to the whole team something like "remember how this feels, we're gonna feel like this after every game." Then he led the cheer. It wasn't anything specific, but I thought it was a sign.