Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_benchmark::start() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 162

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::get() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/installation.class.inc.php on line 32

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::get_instance() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/language.class.inc.php on line 77

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php:162) in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/language.class.inc.php on line 182

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::load() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/installation.class.inc.php on line 33

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_setting::read() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 305

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::query() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/setting.class.inc.php on line 67

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connection() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 151

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connect() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 81

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::connect() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 35

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::factory() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 436

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::parseDSN() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 379

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::loadClass() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 388

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 330

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 389

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::parseDSN() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2353

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::setOptions() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 395

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 396

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 437

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 442

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 36

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 1911

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::fileExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 1911

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::loadClass() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 1918

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 330

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 1937

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1227

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 154

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4049

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4147

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1608

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1227

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1642

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1647

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1655

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2642

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::isResultCommon() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2648

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 162

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::get() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 315

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::get_instance() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/language.class.inc.php on line 77

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php:162) in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/language.class.inc.php on line 182

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_language::load() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 316

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_setting::read_all() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/core.inc.php on line 323

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connection() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/setting.class.inc.php on line 90

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connect() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 81

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2642

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::isResultCommon() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2648

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/setting.class.inc.php on line 92

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Declaration of HTML_QuickForm_hidden::accept() should be compatible with HTML_QuickForm_element::accept(&$renderer, $required = false, $error = NULL) in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm/hidden.php on line 93

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/HTML/QuickForm.php on line 603

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_benchmark::mark() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/comment.php on line 153

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_query::add_element() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/list.class.inc.php on line 309

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_query::get_instance() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/query.class.inc.php on line 132

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_comment::identifier() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/comment.php on line 166

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::call_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/comment.class.inc.php on line 377

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::container() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 52

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Declaration of gentlesource_module_smiley::administration() should be compatible with gentlesource_module_common::administration() in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/module/gentlesource_module_smiley/gentlesource_module_smiley.class.inc.php on line 261

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_module::load_module() should not be called statically in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/module.class.inc.php on line 189

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_time::current_timestamp() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/commentlist.class.inc.php on line 104

Strict Standards: mktime(): You should be using the time() function instead in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/time.class.inc.php on line 28

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::fields() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/commentlist.class.inc.php on line 116

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::query() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/list.class.inc.php on line 451

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connection() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 151

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connect() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 81

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1227

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 154

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4049

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4049

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4049

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 4147

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1608

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1227

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1642

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1647

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1642

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1647

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1642

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1647

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 1655

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::classExists() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2642

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::isResultCommon() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2.php on line 2648

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 162

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::query() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/list.class.inc.php on line 455

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connection() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 151

Strict Standards: Non-static method c5t_database::connect() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/database.class.inc.php on line 81

Strict Standards: Non-static method MDB2::areEquals() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/mysql.php on line 563

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1118

Strict Standards: Non-static method PEAR::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/jason423/public_html/comments/comment_script_1.3.1/include/library/MDB2/Driver/Datatype/Common.php on line 1222

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Analyzing the Draft: Quinton Coples
New York Jets Salary Cap Page

Analyzing the Draft: Quinton Coples

As you know about a month or so ago I developed a scoring matrix for the draft based on games played, seasons started, and pro bowl nods to serve as a guide of sorts for draft expectations and positional values. A score of 300 would indicate an average player, playing exactly the average amount of games, starting seasons, and pro bowl nods. A score of 0 would indicate the player never played in the NFL. The scores are based on the 1997-2007 draft classes. With the draft complete Iíll begin to do write-ups on each player with the earlier the pick the most time devoted to the selection. First up is DE Quinton Coples, who was selected with the 16th overall pick in the draft .

The average score for a player picked between 11 and 32 is a 747, meaning the player is about 2.5 times as productive as the average player. That translates into playing about 1.65 times as many games, starting 2.27 more seasons, and being awarded 2.6 times as many Pro Bowls as the average draft selection. Now that mix wont ever happen because it would result in a fractional amount of Pro Bowls, so to illustrate some examples of the average pick in round 1 we have T Jeff Backus and WR Javon Walker. Backus has started for 11 seasons and played in 176 games to earn his grade of 725 while Walker earned the grade based on his 1 Pro Bowl nod and then flamed out quickly thereafter. So there are many different ways to be considered an ďaverage first rounderĒ The median score is a 458 so there is greater than a 50% chance that Coples is above the draft average. The Jets portion of the draft, which I scored from pick 13 thru pick 19 since I think that is a fair range based on draft boards, comes out to an average of 799 and 471, which represents the benefits of drafting higher in a round for a team.

Defensive Ends accounted for 14% of the 242 picks made in the range we looked at, so itís a popular pick. The risk is higher though with the average falling to a 625. The median is a 478 so the selection is producing just as many decent players, but the lows are greater with DE, which plays into the boom or bust philosophy often discussed about the position. In looking over the position you have about 14.7% of the players you would be absolutely thrilled with, two of whom, John Abraham and Shaun Ellis, were drafted by the Jets. 29.4% are players that end up in the draft bust video such as Michael Haynes and Jerome McDougle. Dwight Freeney was far and away the best player selected with a score of 3616. In the Jets section of the draft 20% of the players are excellent and about 33.3% bust.

The Jets track record in the first round has been great with an average score of 1303 over that period of time. Thatís about 80% better than the average. 6 of their 10 selections have made a Pro Bowl and only Rick Terry, who was technically a 2nd rounder, was considered below average (and he was a disaster so it was almost as far below average as you could get with a score of 44). Since Terry Bradway took over for Parcells the worst selection was Bryan Thomas who still scores an above average 521, so the Jets front office has done stellar outside of the top 10 in round 1. The only recent player that would also fit into this first round category, not included in the study, is TE Dustin Keller who, for all his shortcomings and my complaints about him, going to clearly be above average when its all said and done. It is way to early to make any determination about Muhammad Wilkerson.

So all in all I think for Coples the odds are we definitely have a player that will be above average but the risk for a bust is much higher than other selections the Jets could have made such as Guard. That said I think the Jets positional success significantly minimizes the bust potential. Factoring that in we can probably increase the chances of having a high end selection here to between 32 and 35%, which helps balances out the risk. So Iíd say the odds of superstar or bust is about equal, more than could be said for most teams. The upside would be something of a Javon Kearse type. Iíd imagine the average downside would be Calvin Pace which might now get anyone too excited but will at least result in productive minutes. Pace would seem to be a close comparable since he flashes and then disappears, which seems to be the knock on Coples.

I probably would have played it a little safer and drafted the lineman in this spot as Iím not sure the Jets are in a position to risk the bust potential as they have gotten little out of the 2008-2010 drafts. That said they do need a difference maker on defense and the potential is clearly there for Coples. Pass rushers cost extreme amounts of money on the open market and if you can lock one in for a few million a year via the draft you put your franchise in an excellent position capwise to make improvements elsewhere where the cost for a high end player is not as high as Defensive End. Lets hope for the best.

For reference here is the listing of all Defensive Ends drafted from 1997 thru 2011 in the Jets range of the draft, with scores presented for the players thru 2007. JPP will likely be the only standout of the group post 2007, fitting right in with the 14.7% excellent rate over the prior 10 year period.
Name Score
John Abraham  2119%
Jevon Kearse  1685%
Will Smith  964%
Vonnie Holliday  678%
Kenard Lang  573%
Kamerion Wimbley  551%
Calvin Pace  493%
Ty Warren  464%
Adam Carriker  398%
Kenny Holmes  362%
Jason Peter  141%
Jarvis Moss  129%
Erasmus James  113%
Michael Haynes  71%
Jerome McDougle  63%
Robert Ayers NA
Derrick Morgan NA
Jason Pierre Paul NA
Brandon Graham NA
Ryan Kerrigan NA
Robert Quinn NA
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Comments (2)

I do understand the nature of this position makes the selectors heroes or goats, but I do like the direction the Jets are going on this. We saw what the Jets were capable of when they consistently got to Tom Brady, and with the NFL evolving into a pass oriented league, pressuring the QB has got to be a priority.
#1 - Jazz - 04/29/2012 - 19:04
I wonder if the rating mechanism could be refined a bit. Of course teams are reluctant to give up on their first round draft picks, so they may end up getting the benefit of the doubt much more than a third round pick of equal skill, which can translate into more seasons and games played without necessarily more effectiveness. If Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell had been undrafted free agents or late round picks, they would have been drummed out of the league much sooner. If an uninjured 1st round pick turns out to be a disaster, and the team is doing poorly, people lose their jobs over that sort of thing (beyond just the player) so there are powerful incentives to try to get something out of those players even if it becomes obvious that they are only marginal players.

Pro Bowl elections are a nice stat, and of course it is highly correlated with having had a great season, but the election process is far from perfect. A third of the voting power comes from the fans, who are not in a good position to judge many positions, such as offensive linemen (it's hard to tell a good one from a great one without breaking down the tape.) Players watch tape, but I'm sure they mainly focus on who they'll be interacting with / affecting / working with. That means a defensive player doesn't watch much tape on opposing defenses - and even then, they only face 13 different teams unless they make the post-season. The selection process might be better if it was weighted towards, say, the wide receivers voting for the best cornerbacks and vice versa.

My other concern is with just counting the number of games played- does playing every down on defense count the same as only playing on kickoffs?

But, as long as one understands the limitations it still looks like a useful metric. I'd just say that first round picks are probably artificially inflated by the fact that there is so much extra pressure to give those players the chance to succeed, and they may end up with an average score even if their abilities are well below average. Often moderate first round busts are traded or are signed as free agents, simply because they were once viewed as top prospects and someone is willing to gamble a late round pick to see if they can salvage them.

Speaking of which- that would be an interesting topic for an article; first round busts who get second chances with new teams. How often does that work out for the acquiring team?
#2 - RamJet - 01/15/2013 - 02:10
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