The ILB Market: David Harris and Jerod Mayo

With the contract information coming in for Patriots LB Jerod Mayo as first reported by Brian McIntyre, it was only natural for the comparisons to begin to the contract Mayo received and the one received by the Jets David Harris.  So let’s take a look at the two players and the contracts received.  <br /><br />

Statistically the two players are not far apart.  Now Mayo did move outside this year, which is going to lead to his lowest statistical production of his career, but if that is his future that all should be taken into account when doing his contract.  Here are the stats of the two players through the first 4 years of their careers (Mayo’s stats are prorated for the last two games of the 2011 season), plus those of Patrick Willis and Jon Beason who are the top market contracts:

Here is how important they are to the scheme based on percentage contribution in their roles over their 4 seasons. The league average is for 34 ILBS that played at least 75% of team snaps in 2010 according to Pro Football Focus. I also included Karlos Dansby since the Dolphins were the only 34 team to not have an ILB credited with 75% playing time:



Surprisingly both are below average for positional production in both tackle categories, Harris well below average.  Now that also says something about the defenses they play for and opportunities they receive, but I actually found that to be a very surprising statistic. It’s a story for another day but it definitely brings into question why to invest so heavily in both Harris and Bart Scott?  No surprise that in 2010 Willis was the most important player accounting for over 15% of the 49ers total and solo tackles and nearly 17% of their sacks.  He is the gold standard by which all should be judged.  Beason I thought would be better, especially since he has a more active role, but much of his value comes in the passing game, which is not included here since it does not pertain to Mayo or Harris.

Back to the Harris/Mayo comparison--- we have two players with similar value.  Mayo likely has better range and is the more active and productive tackler.  The stuffs show that he is someone getting to the line quickly, penetrating, and making the play in the backfield at times.  Harris does not do that. Neither player is exactly a monster in pass coverage – Willis had 28 passes defensed and 4 picks in his first 4 seasons in the NFL and has added on another 12 and 1 this year on a better defense---so that should not be much of a factor in the contract.  Harris’ additional value comes from his ability to rush the passer.  He is a big part of the Jets scheme in that regard, accounting for 10.2% of the teams sacks in his first four years, and a more important pass rusher than others in the NFL.  Mayo only accounted for 2.6% over his first four seasons. 

All in all I’d say the two players are actually pretty equal within their schemes.  Mayo is the better tackler and Harris is a far better pass rusher.  Harris may have a bit more value to the Jets than Mayo to the Patriots because of that.  It makes him a more well rounded player which is important for the Jets.  Mayo has the higher upside as seen by his highlight year and can contribute in a number of roles and defensive schemes where Harris is best suited for the Jets 34 scheme.  The Jets do use a lot of looks with Harris on the field, but he is not going to be lining up on the outside nor is any 43 team going to give him a job as a MLB.

The Deals

The Jets signed Harris this past summer to a 4 year contract worth $36 million.  The number that really jumped out for everyone was the guaranteed money in the contract.  The contract contained $24.9 million in fully guaranteed money that was more or less guaranteed to turn into $29.4 million once Harris maintains his roster spot in 2012.  Harris will be 30 years old in the final year of his contract.

Now to compare the deals we really need to look at the 3 and 4 year payouts in the contract to put the real money payouts in perspective. 

There are a few things that stand out here.  First of all Beason and Willis essentially ended up with the same contract.   Beason will make $41 million in the first 4 years of the deal and Willis will make nearly that much money.  In return for matching Willis, who is slightly more productive than Beason, Beason took a lower guarantee on his deal.  That $41 million number is important here. It has set the mark for “best at position”.  Mayo has Pro Bowl bonuses of $300,000 per season, which would be an indication of being the “best at position”. If achieved it raises the 4 year value to $41 million, identical to Beason and Willis.  Harris has an incentive worth $5 million at the end of his deal if he also achieves recognition for being “best in position”. That maximizes his deal also at $41million.

Why is Harris’ 4 year value so much lower?  Because he has not proven to be as good as Mayo.  Mayo’s one season was off the charts, where he was more productive as a tackler than Willis.  The Steelers Lawrence Timmons was also right there with Willis that season even though he gave below average production in the 3 years prior.  One big year makes a world of difference which is why Mayo and Timmons ended up with $39 million in those first 4 years rather than $36.  Harris has to prove he deserves to be that high.

The three year payouts being identical tells me that the Harris deal was probably the framework for the Mayo payouts early in the deal.  Mayo will make about 8% more over the first 4 extension years, after which he will also turn 30, just like Harris.  Harris gets an extra 6% in guaranteed money, which is really just semantics since it would require some disaster for either player to not earn the three year totals. Both seem a bit high compared to the top of the market values, but when you consider Dansby of the Dolphins and Bart Scott of the Jets were given $27 million in the first three years and $33.25 and $32.85 million in the first 4, well you can see why they have to get more than those players.  Both Mayo and Harris are younger and statistically more productive.   

So both deals are probably fair given the market. Neither team really made out great with the contracts.  Both are probably overpaid for their production, but when you have big market teams with name players coming off good seasons, values get inflated.  It is even more inflated when the Dansby’s of the world make out great.  You really can’t negotiate top down, you end up working bottom up and there is no way to claim Dansby is a greater value than either player.  Scott was actually negotiated down this season to lower those overly high charges. Those deals skew the whole market which leads to the Harris and Mayo deals.

Guaranteed vs Prorated Money

Normally these two things go hand in hand.  For the longest time “guaranteed money” pretty much meant signing bonus money. Then it became signing and option bonus money.  This is all prorated over the first 5 years of a contract after execution of the contract or bonus.  More recently it has become guaranteed salaries.  There is a big difference between the two.  Prorated money gives a team no flexibility.  Once it is paid it is stuck to your salary cap.    You can’t escape it.

Guaranteed salary is different.  You can change when it is paid out to lessen cap charges without incurring future financial penalties if the player goes downhill. You can decide to prorate it at a later time. It also gives you flexibility to run away from a contract much earlier than the player may believe you ever would.  It also leaves you with a possibility of trading the player.  When a player is traded all his signing bonus money accelerates onto the salary cap. It makes it impossible to move the player.

 When the guaranteed money is tied into salary those guarantees just transfer to the team trading for him.  Nothing accelerates and you get the player off your roster with minimal cap penalties. This is something that I feel the Jets are doing more of.  Higher guarantees but lower prorated bonus money.  Its more of a pay as you go system rather than the prepay system many teams use.  I doubt it is being done with trading a player in mind, but it is likely being done to maintain the maximum amount of flexibility in a roster. 

Harris’ real deal is a 3 year contract.  The fourth year may never happen.  There is only a $2 million dollar charge to release him.  If the Jets want to move on earlier and can find a trade partner you are going to save about $9 million in cap dollars in year 3 by doing so.  The dead charge is only $4 million.  So  in theory the Jets could escape after 2 years and a $20 million dollar payout.
Mayo’s total contract length is much longer since he has one year remaining on his rookie deal.  This gave the Patriots some ways to reduce cap charges better than the Jets, but it also ensures he is on the team for a full 4 seasons because to lessen the cap charges they gave him much larger amounts of bonus money.  Like Harris the extension will probably only last 3 seasons, but the Patriots cant escape the deal until that time.  Trading him in year 3 costs $6 million in cap dollars and only saves $4.6. 

The complete opposite end of the spectrum is Beason who will likely see 4 years of his contract just due to the $20 million dollar bonus paid out in the first year. There is little room for renegotiation due to the low base salaries in 2012 and 2013.  It is a great deal for the player and real lock in deal for the Carolina Panthers. 

So in that respect I think the Harris contract gives the Jets significantly more flexibility than the Mayo one gives New England.  They have ways to lower his cap charges in 2012 and 2013 if need be.  It gives the Jets flexibility in the case “something comes up” like a high priced free agent unexpectedly hitting the market or that Harris begins to play as good as Willis and they want to tack a few years onto the end of the deal.    It gives the Jets room to admit they made a mistake and need to walk away.  They have done a good job with that recently.  Mangold, Fergsuon, Harris, Cromartie, Holmes---all high priced players with high cap charges, but all players that maintain “escape clauses” via the reported salary structures.