NFL Efficiency- Week 13
Every year with 4 weeks left to go I try to project the finish of the year based on the team stats up to this point in time so here we go again.
Not much going on in the battle for the division here where New England has this all wrapped up barring an epic collapse. They should finish the year 13-3 as they look to win every game by double digits except the Dolphins game which should be around a TD margin. That is the one dangerous game for the Patriots in the battle for home field since Miami was poor early in the year and the stats are not weighted for current play. Over the last 5 weeks or so Miami is probably in the top 7 in the NFL….The Jets are in the middle of the wildcard race and are not in great tiebreaker position. They should beat the Chiefs by 11-14 points next week to get to 8-5. Philadelphia is dangerous if the good version with Mike Vick shows up, but the Jets should win that one by 3-6 points. They will be very slight favorites to beat the Giants, maybe a 2-4 point margin, leaving Miami as a pick em game. With the way Miami is playing that probably makes the Jets a slight underdog if the Dolphins continue to play well. So must likely it's a 10-6 finish for the Jets.
The Ravens have a big advantage over the Steelers due to the head to head tiebreaker. They also have a cupcake schedule with the Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and Browns on the horizon. They look to win all their games by double digits with the Bengals posing the biggest threat, though the Ravens could just dog that game is everything is locked up. Most likely the biggest threat is themselves as the Ravens have had some terrible showings against bad teams in the past…Pittsburgh still has a trip to San Francisco in which they should be a slight underdog. Something like a 19-16 type score. The other games are all laughers. They should beat the Browns by about 14 points each time and then the Rams by over 20. So it looks like the Ravens get the 13-3 mark with Pittsburgh being the 5 seed at 12-4….The Bengals are fading but remain in the wildcard lead right now. Its not an impossible schedule with the Texans hurting and the Ravens possibly resting in week 17, but its not easy. Texans are tough to predict, but they should be expected to win by a touchdown. The Cardinals will be a 3 point underdog and the Rams a 13 point dog. Arizona is feisty and that's a close game between teams going in the opposite directions. The Bengals will probably be an 8 or 9 win team unless Baltimore gives them the game in week 17.
Houston is so banged up but they continue to win primarily because their defense has played so well. If things hold to form they should not face a challenge the remainder of the season and finish 13-3, but anything is possible with a no name inexperienced QB….Tennessee is probably the steadiest of the wildcard contenders. They get beat up by really good teams but handle those teams they should beat. Unfortunately for them they have the Saints next week which they stand to lose by 9 or 10 points. If the Jaguars could ever get anything going offensively they could pose a threat as well, but the Titnas are a 3 point favorite in that spot. Indy is a joke. Tennessee needs Houston to have nothing to play for or have fallen apart by week 17 to get to 10 wins. Right now they are projecting to be a 9 win team.
You cant count anyone out here. Denver's John Fox deserves Coach of the Year for what he has done this season and the schedule closes perfectly as they get a Bears team with nothing left on the field and a Bills team that packed it in when they lost to the Jets a few weeks back. On paper they should lose to Chicago by 4, but the Bears are so bad right now its hard to believe that. New England is an impossible matchup. Buffalo is a slight favorite to win right now, but I have a feeling that will change by the time they meet since the Bills have faded so quickly. They will be big favorites against the Chiefs. Figure they will get either the Bills or Bears game due to the current play of the teams and call it 9-7…Oakland puts together some horrid games every few weeks which will probably cost them. They will be big underdogs against the Packers and Lions and in a pick em type game against the Chargers. If San Diego's frame of mind is good they will be 8-8, if they don't feel like playing Oakland will be 9-7. San Diego should not top 7 while it would be a surprise if the Chiefs won another game this season.
The Cowboys and Giants play each other twice and in both games Dallas should be favored. Dallas should win by a TD at home and 2-3 points on the road. Of course that is assuming that the Cowboys teams who tries actually plays the game. The Eagles could be a tougher opponent than the Giants if the Eagles try. Tampa should be a cakewalk. It is hard to believe in Dallas, but on paper they should finish the year 11-5….It will be tough for the Giants as they will need to win the close games that are expected to lose. That means splitting with Dallas, beating the Jets, and making sure not to slip against the Redskins, who will be about a 5 point underdog. Giants should not get more than 8 wins and 7 is the more likely scenario.
Yes the Packers should go 16-0…Chicago has to do something with their QB position. Their current guy cant play and they lost their star runner for the year to boot. Even with their problems they should beat the Seahawks and Vikings and there is little they can do to beat Green Bay, but the Denver game is the scary one. On paper they will get to 10. In reality its hard to see a team that cant score on the Chiefs win more than 9….If Detroit was smart they would fire their coach after the season regardless of the playoffs. He's turned them into the Raiders of the NFC and that isn't a good reputation to have. Other than Green Bay in week 17 no games looks hard (Raiders, Vikings, and Chargers) so its probably a 10 win season for the Lions which is a huge step forward for them.
Saints really want the 2 seed to stay indoors in round 2. Their toughest game looks to be in week 16 against the Falcons in which they should still win by 9 points. The other opponents, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Carolina are all pushovers. So that's a 13-3 finish….Atlanta missed a big opportunity in Houston and now has to fight. They should beat Carolina and Jacksonville by about a touchdown and clobber the Buccaneers to end the year. They will lose to the Saints but look to be 10-6.
San Francisco should go 14-2. At worst they will be 13-3 if they lose to the Steelers, whom they are slight favorites to beat, or just tank it in week 17.
NFL Efficiency Rankings, Thru Week 13
|Rank||Change||Team||Off Eff||Def Eff||Total Eff|
|2||-1||Green Bay Packers||62.46%||-3.77%||66.24%|
|3||+1||New England Patriots||54.76%||-5.13%||59.89%|
|5||-||San Francisco 49ers||23.12%||-35.88%||59.00%|
|6||+1||New Orleans Saints||59.05%||5.68%||53.37%|
|11||-||New York Jets||23.88%||-5.17%||29.06%|
|16||+3||New York Giants||24.68%||15.62%||9.07%|
|18||+3||San Diego Chargers||16.84%||12.73%||4.11%|
|23||-1||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-8.12%||-1.82%||-6.30%|
|30||-||Kansas City Chiefs||-38.41%||-2.83%||-35.57%|
|31||-||St. Louis Rams||-42.92%||8.71%||-51.64%|